40108 (2024). Hon Jan Tinetti to the Associate Minister of Education

40108 (2024). Hon Jan Tinetti to the Associate Minister of Education: What, if any, statistical modelling has been carried out that shows schools need a daily attendance rate of approximately 94% to achieve 80% of students attending 90% of the time as stated in the Minister's answer to a supplementary question to Oral Question 7 on the 28th of May?

Hon David Seymour: The Ministry of Education "The Ministry of Education (the Ministry) undertook a series of simple correlation analyses to identify the relationship between regular attendance and daily attendance. For illustrative purposes, the attached graph below shows the distribution of regular and daily attendance for Term 1, 2024. Each of the 2,399 dots represents a school that provided attendance data. The line of best fit intersects the target of 80 percent regular attendance at 94.3 percent daily attendance. The Ministry considered several scenarios, including different terms and school sizes. To allow use of historical data back to 2011, the Ministry also considered the relationship between regular attendance and average attendance (a substitute for daily attendance). This resulted in over 50,000 data points (school, by term, by year) with a line of best fit intersecting the target of 80 percent regular attendance at 94.4 percent average attendance. "undertook a series of simple correlation analyses to identify the relationship between regular attendance and daily attendance. For illustrative purposes, the attached graph below shows the distribution of regular and daily attendance for Term 1, 2024. Each of the 2,399 dots represents a school that provided attendance data. The line of best fit intersects the target of 80 percent regular attendance at 94.3 percent daily attendance. The Ministry considered several scenarios, including different terms and school sizes. To allow use of historical data back to 2011, the Ministry also considered the relationship between regular attendance and average attendance (a substitute for daily attendance). This resulted in over 50,000 data points (school, by term, by year) with a line of best fit intersecting the target of 80 percent regular attendance at 94.4 percent average attendance.