35882 (2026). Tangi Utikere to the Minister of Transport

35882 (2026). Tangi Utikere to the Minister of Transport: For each material risk valued as transferred to the Northway consortium in the Public Sector Comparator and public-private partnership evaluation for the Warkworth to Te Hana project, what probability of occurrence and what cost impact, or distribution of cost impacts, were assumed in calculating that value, if any, and what methodology (for example Monte Carlo simulation, expected-value estimation, or structured expert elicitation) was used to derive those assumptions?

Hon Chris Bishop: I refer the Member to my responses to Written Parliamentary Questions 35876 (2026) and 35881 (2026). Risk calculation was completed in accordance with the NZTA’s Cost Estimating Manual (SM014).