23341 (2025). Dr Lawrence Xu-Nan to the Minister of Finance

23341 (2025). Dr Lawrence Xu-Nan to the Minister of Finance: What process, if any, was used to move the first withdraw date for the NZ Super Fund, from what Treasury forecasted in Budget 2024 would be 2033, to 2028?

Hon Nicola Willis: At economic and fiscal updates, the Treasury projects the Government’s capital contribution to (or withdrawal from) the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZSF), as required by s43 of the New Zealand Superannuation and Retirement Income Act 2001. The model used to calculate these contributions/withdrawals is published on the Treasury’s website: https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/search?f%5B0%5D=resource_type%3A17412 For any year, the s43 defined formula calculates a percentage of nominal GDP, called the contribution rate. The main determinants of the contribution rate calculated for any year are the forecast and projected tracks of aggregate net New Zealand Superannuation (NZS) expenses and nominal gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 40 years and the closing balance of the NZSF in the previous year. In any given year, the contribution to or withdrawal from the NZSF is calculated as: Contribution rate x Nominal GDP – Aggregate net NZS. If the result is positive, then that is the contribution. If it is negative, then that is the withdrawal amount.