17470 (2025). Hon Barbara Edmonds to the Minister of Finance

17470 (2025). Hon Barbara Edmonds to the Minister of Finance: How sensitive is New Zealand’s domestic growth forecast to changes in partner growth and has Treasury modelled the elasticity of that relationship?

Hon Nicola Willis: The Treasury has previously conducted a quantitative analysis of the spillover impacts of China's economic growth onto New Zealand's growth. Using data from the mid-1980's to 2011, the Treasury found that a 1% increase in Chinese output growth raises domestic GDP by 0.2 to 0.4 percent. Additionally, the growth spillovers are substantially greater from the US than from China. For more information: https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/wp/empirical-evidence-growth-spillovers-china-new-zealand-wp-13-17#abstract