8354 (2026). Scott Willis to the Minister for Energy

8354 (2026). Scott Willis to the Minister for Energy: Does the Minister have any evidence to substantiate the claim that the reason electricity futures have dropped in price is because of the announcement to contract a Liquefied Natural Gas terminal, if so, what is it?

Hon Simon Watts: MBIE analysis previously modelled that the mere availability of LNG as dry-year insurance would lower forward contract prices by at least $10/MWh, by compressing the existing $30–$50/MWh dry-year risk premium embedded in futures. While a variety of factors determine energy futures, post the announcement, ASX-traded calendar-year 2028 and 2029 baseload futures (at the Ōtāhuhu and Benmore nodes) fell significantly, indicating clear market sentiment on energy prices in these years. Independent commentary, including from Forsyth Barr analysts, has specifically discussed forward price changes in relation to LNG. Forsyth Barr director Andrew Harvey-Green stated, speaking to Newsroom in relation to ASX forward prices: "The LNG facility … appears to have been a key factor," "While LNG is a back-up of a back-up for the electricity sector (and may never be used), it further reduces dry risk."