4159 (2026). Dr Tracey McLellan to the Minister of Corrections

4159 (2026). Dr Tracey McLellan to the Minister of Corrections: What modelling has been undertaken to understand how actual prison population growth has tracked against previous projections, and how has this influenced capacity planning?

Hon Mark Mitchell: While Corrections has undertaken modelling to understand how actual prison population growth has tracked against previous projections to inform the High Security Capacity Programme Business Case, I am advised that Corrections utilises a broad range of tools to inform capacity planning, including the 10-year projections released annually by the Ministry of Justice and their own understanding of the dynamics of the prison population. Corrections has significant experience and expertise in managing projected or actual increases in the prison population, and I am advised that they are continually monitoring against existing and planned infrastructure to ensure there is sufficient fit for purpose capacity available to align with the projected prison capacity over time.